![]() ![]() Amid the complex array of contending forces in Syria, in 2016 the balance of power tilted quite sharply in favour of President Bashar al-Assad as a result of three important developments: the Russian air campaign in support of the Syrian Government, combined with ground force support from Iran and Hezbollah Turkey’s reconciliation with Russia, and its ensuing policy shift from regime change in Syria to securing continued Turkish influence and the defeat of anti-government forces in eastern Aleppo in December 2016. The war in Syria has resulted in the displacement of half the population-over 4.8 million as international refugees and over 6.3 million as internally displaced persons-and the death of over 400 000, although there are no reliable casualty statistics. Five years on, it is only in Tunisia that the flowers bloom, although the country’s path to a stable democracy remains fraught with risk. ![]() In 2016 at least 7 of the 16 countries in the region used military force in combat on their own territory, and 11 used it on the territory of other countries.Ī key element in MENA’s security profile is the aftermath of the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’. A variety of factors explain the region’s seemingly chronic insecurity and persistent susceptibility to armed conflict, such as governance failures in most Arab countries, the still-unfolding consequences of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the US-led coalition, and the complex relations and rivalries among regional powers. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remained at the heart of global security concerns throughout 2016. ![]()
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